The New Exit Strategy: Are 'Take-Private' Deals a Sign of Public Market Pessimism?
This article explores "The New Exit Strategy: Are 'Take-Private' Deals a Sign of Public Market Pessimism?" from a business owner's perspective.
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The New Exit Strategy: Are 'Take-Private' Deals a Sign of Public Market Pessimism?
The New Exit Strategy: Are 'Take-Private' Deals a Sign of Public Market Pessimism? - learn the key insights for business owners.
TL;DR
Take-private deals are rising because IPOs are selective. Clean EBITDA, model financing early, and treat the take-private path as a real exit, not a backup.
Introduction
In 2023 I told a founder to keep pushing for a public listing because the board wanted the headline. Six months later, the IPO window was still shut and the best take-private offer had expired. We lost leverage and the price dropped. That mistake was on me.
Here is the thing: take-private deals are not just a market fad. They are a response to higher scrutiny, uneven IPO windows, and a need for operational freedom. If you treat them like a backup plan, you will negotiate from weakness.
Why take-private deals are rising
IPO recovery is real, but still selective
PwC reports global IPO proceeds of $105.6 billion from 876 IPOs in 2024 and $143.3 billion from 1,014 IPOs in 2025. The recovery is real, but it is still a filter, not an open door.
That is why take-private deals remain attractive. If you cannot guarantee a premium public valuation, a private exit can be the more reliable path.
What buyers actually want in take-private deals
Most advisors will disagree, but I see take-private deals as operational turnarounds, not financial engineering plays. Buyers want a clean earnings base, a credible fix, and enough downside protection to justify the leverage.
If you cannot show transferability of cash flow and a clear plan, you will not get the premium you want.
My mistake: treating it as a backup
Case: TechFlow and the private reset
TechFlow Solutions in Stockholm had SEK 22M revenue and a mixed services and SaaS model. Public buyers saw complexity, not upside. We restructured the business and positioned it for a take-private style carve-out: services sold at 4.0x EBITDA and the SaaS piece stayed private.
The deal worked because the story was cleaned before the process, not during it. That is the core lesson in take-private deals. The growing pressure on companies stuck without an exit makes this restructuring approach increasingly common.
The take-private readiness playbook
Founders want a clear path. I use a four-step sequence that keeps take-private deals financeable and fast.
Run this before you go to market and you will shorten exclusivity and protect leverage. It also gives lenders and buyers confidence that timelines are real.
What this means for founders
Take-private deals are a signal that public markets are selective, not broken. If you want this exit, treat it as the primary plan, clean the earnings story, and price it to financing reality.
If you want a baseline range before you plan, start with a business valuation from Valuefy and use it to set your walk-away points.
Frequently asked questions
Are take-private deals replacing IPOs?
Not replacing, but filling the gap when IPO windows are narrow or valuations are weak.
What makes a company a take-private target?
Stable cash flow, fixable operational issues, and a price that works with current debt.
Should I wait for the IPO window?
Only if you can carry the business and the valuation is realistic. Otherwise, a take-private deal can be faster and cleaner.
When should I start preparing?
At least 12 months before you want to exit, ideally earlier.
Act on market movement
Order your valuation while conditions are favourable
Valuefy packages current market multiples, DCF analysis, and risk commentary into a single PDF you can share with buyers or investors. Delivery in about 10 minutes for €39.
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Written by
James Crawford
M&A Advisor & Former Investment Banker
James Crawford spent 10+ years in investment banking before transitioning to M&A advisory. He now helps SME owners understand their business value and prepare for successful exits. Based in London, he works with companies across Europe and brings a practical, no-nonsense approach to valuation and deal-making.
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